SIGNAL Lab

Research & Publications

The research group works on statistical and machine learning methods for complex data, with a particular emphasis on time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data, forecasting, nonparametric methods, Bayesian modelling, and interdisciplinary applications.

Our work is often motivated by real-world problems from climate, public health, finance, urban systems, social sciences, policy, and sports. The aim is to develop rigorous methods and apply them to data-rich problems where uncertainty, dependence, heterogeneity, and temporal or spatial structure play an important role.

Key research themes

Click on a theme to view related publications.

📈

Time series and forecasting

Methods for analysing dependent data, forecasting future outcomes, detecting temporal changes, and understanding uncertainty in sequential processes.

View related publications

Multiperiod volatility forecasting with optimization-based model selection: Evidence from NIFTY-50 Banks

Rai, K., Anand, A., Deb, S. · 2026

SSRN

A nonparametric approach to understand multivariate quantile dynamics in financial time series

Rai, K., Roy, A., Dattner, I., Deb, S. · 2026

arXiv

Nonparametric method of structural break detection in stochastic time series regression model

Roy, A., Podder, M., Deb, S. · 2024

arXiv

tSNE-Spec: A new classification method for multivariate time series data

Sen, S., Deb, S. · 2025

Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 105537

A survey of statistical and machine learning methods of quantile regression in time series and their suitability in predicting dengue outbreaks

Deshmukh, S. S., Deb, S. · 2025

Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science, 8(1), 641-689

Nonparametric quantile regression for time series with replicated observations and its application to climate data

Deb, S., Jana, K. · 2024

Statistical Science, 39(3), 428-448

Real-time forecasting within soccer matches through a Bayesian lens

Divekar, C., Deb, S., Roy, R. · 2024

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187(2), 513-540

Forecasting elections from partial information using a Bayesian model for a multinomial sequence of data

Deb, S., Roy, R., Das, S. · 2024

Journal of Forecasting, 43(6), 1814-1834

New methods of structural break detection and an ensemble approach to analyse exchange rate volatility of Indian rupee during coronavirus pandemic

Mareeswaran, M., Sen, S., Deb, S. · 2024

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187(1), 39-61

Impact of COVID-19 on public social life and mental health: A statistical study of Google Trends data from the USA

Roy, A., Deb, S., Chakarwarti, D. · 2024

Journal of Applied Statistics, 51(3), 581-605

A wavelet-based methodology to compare the impact of pandemic versus Russia-Ukraine conflict on crude oil sector and its interconnectedness with other energy and non-energy markets

Roy, A., Soni, A., Deb, S. · 2023

Energy Economics, 124, 106830

Analyzing airlines stock price volatility during COVID-19 pandemic through internet search data

Deb, S. · 2023

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2), 1497-1513

A quadratic trend-based time series method to analyze the early incidence pattern of COVID-19

Deb, S., Majumdar, M. · 2023

Biostatistics & Epidemiology, 7(1), e2076529

An ensemble method for early prediction of dengue outbreak

Deb, S., Deb, S. · 2022

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 185(1), 84-101

🌍

Spatio-temporal modelling

Statistical models for data varying over space and time, with applications in air pollution, climate, real estate, disease spread, and urban systems.

View related publications

Nonparametric regression of spatio-temporal data using infinite-dimensional covariates

Roy, S., Deb, S., Karmakar, S., Roy, R. · 2026

arXiv

Nonparametric quantile regression for spatio-temporal processes

Deb, S., Neves, C., Roy, S. · 2024

arXiv

CPRI-Office: A new commercial property rental index for Indian cities using spatio-temporal modeling techniques

Gupta, K., Srivastava, S., Deb, S., Panchapagesan, V. · 2025

IIMB Working Paper No. 727/2025

A Bayesian approach to identify changepoints in spatio-temporal ordered categorical data: An application to COVID-19 data

Rawat, S., Durrant, A., Simpson, A., Nielson, G., Berrett, C., Deb, S. · 2023

arXiv

E-STGCN: Extreme spatiotemporal graph convolutional networks for air quality forecasting

Panja, M., Chakraborty, T., Biswas, A., Deb, S. · 2026

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, qnag010

A divide-and-conquer approach for spatio-temporal analysis of large house price data from Greater London

Gupta, K., Deb, S. · 2025

Annals of Operations Research, 1-42

A data-driven approach to spatial zoning and anomaly detection in the dynamic real estate network

Basu Sarbadhikary, S., Roy, A., Deb, S. · 2025

Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 23998083251411954

A spatio-temporal model for binary data and its application in analyzing the direction of COVID-19 spread

Chattopadhyay, A., Deb, S. · 2024

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 108(4), 823-851

A novel spatio-temporal clustering algorithm with applications on COVID-19 data from the United States

Deb, S., Karmakar, S. · 2023

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 188, 107810

A spatio-temporal statistical model to analyze COVID-19 spread in the USA

Rawat, S., Deb, S. · 2023

Journal of Applied Statistics, 50(11-12), 2310-2329

Quantile regression and extremes

Quantile-based and tail-focused methods for understanding heterogeneous responses, risks, and extreme behaviour.

View related publications

A nonparametric approach to understand multivariate quantile dynamics in financial time series

Rai, K., Roy, A., Dattner, I., Deb, S. · 2026

arXiv

Nonparametric quantile regression for spatio-temporal processes

Deb, S., Neves, C., Roy, S. · 2024

arXiv

A survey of statistical and machine learning methods of quantile regression in time series and their suitability in predicting dengue outbreaks

Deshmukh, S. S., Deb, S. · 2025

Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science, 8(1), 641-689

Nonparametric quantile regression for time series with replicated observations and its application to climate data

Deb, S., Jana, K. · 2024

Statistical Science, 39(3), 428-448

🧠

Statistical learning

Machine learning, deep learning, ensemble learning, and statistical learning methods for complex empirical datasets.

View related publications

Projection Diagnostics for Directional Asymmetry and Tail-Ratio Departure in Multivariate Data

Banerjee, S., Deb, S. · 2026

arXiv

Optimising football transfer strategy under budget constraints: A weighted multi-criteria approach

Basu, T., Deb, S., Roy, R. · 2026

arXiv

A review and recommendations on variable selection methods in regression models for binary data

Bag, S., Gupta, K., Deb, S. · 2022

arXiv

E-STGCN: Extreme spatiotemporal graph convolutional networks for air quality forecasting

Panja, M., Chakraborty, T., Biswas, A., Deb, S. · 2026

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, qnag010

Optimal selection of the starting lineup for a football team

Deb, S., Das, S. · 2026

IIMB Management Review, 100642

A data-driven approach to spatial zoning and anomaly detection in the dynamic real estate network

Basu Sarbadhikary, S., Roy, A., Deb, S. · 2025

Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 23998083251411954

tSNE-Spec: A new classification method for multivariate time series data

Sen, S., Deb, S. · 2025

Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 105537

Environmentally Responsible Index Tracking: Maintaining Performance while Reducing Carbon Footprint of the Portfolio

Lakshmi M.V., Deb, S., Sen, R. · 2025

Statistics and Applications, 23(1), 217-223

What elements of the opening set influence the outcome of a tennis match? An in-depth analysis of Wimbledon data

Gupta, K., Krishnamurthy, V., Deb, S. · 2025

IIMB Management Review, 37(1), 100519

New methods of structural break detection and an ensemble approach to analyse exchange rate volatility of Indian rupee during coronavirus pandemic

Mareeswaran, M., Sen, S., Deb, S. · 2024

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187(1), 39-61

A wavelet-based methodology to compare the impact of pandemic versus Russia-Ukraine conflict on crude oil sector and its interconnectedness with other energy and non-energy markets

Roy, A., Soni, A., Deb, S. · 2023

Energy Economics, 124, 106830

A novel spatio-temporal clustering algorithm with applications on COVID-19 data from the United States

Deb, S., Karmakar, S. · 2023

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 188, 107810

Analyzing airlines stock price volatility during COVID-19 pandemic through internet search data

Deb, S. · 2023

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2), 1497-1513

An ensemble method for early prediction of dengue outbreak

Deb, S., Deb, S. · 2022

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 185(1), 84-101

A machine learning approach to analyze the effect of situational and player-dependent features on converting freekicks in soccer

Nahata, S., Deb, S. · 2021

Conference Proceedings 2021 Asia-Singapore Conference on Sport Science, p. 19

Sports analytics

Statistical modelling and analytics for football, cricket, tennis, kabaddi, and other sports.

View related publications

Optimising football transfer strategy under budget constraints: A weighted multi-criteria approach

Basu, T., Deb, S., Roy, R. · 2026

arXiv

Skill or chance? A Bayesian analysis of dependence and heterogeneity in penalty shootouts in football

Deb, S. · 2026

Journal of Sports Analytics, 12

Optimal selection of the starting lineup for a football team

Deb, S., Das, S. · 2026

IIMB Management Review, 100642

What elements of the opening set influence the outcome of a tennis match? An in-depth analysis of Wimbledon data

Gupta, K., Krishnamurthy, V., Deb, S. · 2025

IIMB Management Review, 37(1), 100519

Real-time forecasting within soccer matches through a Bayesian lens

Divekar, C., Deb, S., Roy, R. · 2024

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187(2), 513-540

A goal based index to analyze the competitive balance of a football league

Deb, S. · 2022

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 18(3), 171-186

A machine learning approach to analyze the effect of situational and player-dependent features on converting freekicks in soccer

Nahata, S., Deb, S. · 2021

Conference Proceedings 2021 Asia-Singapore Conference on Sport Science, p. 19

🌱

Environmental research

Applied research using environmental datasets such as air pollution, rainfall, flooding, land surface temperature, and climate data.

View related publications

E-STGCN: Extreme spatiotemporal graph convolutional networks for air quality forecasting

Panja, M., Chakraborty, T., Biswas, A., Deb, S. · 2026

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, qnag010

Environmentally Responsible Index Tracking: Maintaining Performance while Reducing Carbon Footprint of the Portfolio

Lakshmi M.V., Deb, S., Sen, R. · 2025

Statistics and Applications, 23(1), 217-223

Nonparametric quantile regression for time series with replicated observations and its application to climate data

Deb, S., Jana, K. · 2024

Statistical Science, 39(3), 428-448

🏙️

Real estate and urban analytics

Statistical methods for large real estate datasets, rental indices, spatial zoning, urban systems, and policy-relevant analytics.

View related publications

CPRI-Office: A new commercial property rental index for Indian cities using spatio-temporal modeling techniques

Gupta, K., Srivastava, S., Deb, S., Panchapagesan, V. · 2025

IIMB Working Paper No. 727/2025

A divide-and-conquer approach for spatio-temporal analysis of large house price data from Greater London

Gupta, K., Deb, S. · 2025

Annals of Operations Research, 1-42

A data-driven approach to spatial zoning and anomaly detection in the dynamic real estate network

Basu Sarbadhikary, S., Roy, A., Deb, S. · 2025

Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 23998083251411954

🔬

Other applications

Applied statistical and machine learning research in areas beyond the lab's main thematic clusters, including public health, social systems, policy studies, education, management, and interdisciplinary empirical applications.

View related publications

A Bayesian approach to identify changepoints in spatio-temporal ordered categorical data: An application to COVID-19 data

Rawat, S., Durrant, A., Simpson, A., Nielson, G., Berrett, C., Deb, S. · 2023

arXiv

Environmentally Responsible Index Tracking: Maintaining Performance while Reducing Carbon Footprint of the Portfolio

Lakshmi M.V., Deb, S., Sen, R. · 2025

Statistics and Applications, 23(1), 217-223

A survey of statistical and machine learning methods of quantile regression in time series and their suitability in predicting dengue outbreaks

Deshmukh, S. S., Deb, S. · 2025

Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science, 8(1), 641-689

Forecasting elections from partial information using a Bayesian model for a multinomial sequence of data

Deb, S., Roy, R., Das, S. · 2024

Journal of Forecasting, 43(6), 1814-1834

A spatio-temporal model for binary data and its application in analyzing the direction of COVID-19 spread

Chattopadhyay, A., Deb, S. · 2024

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 108(4), 823-851

New methods of structural break detection and an ensemble approach to analyse exchange rate volatility of Indian rupee during coronavirus pandemic

Mareeswaran, M., Sen, S., Deb, S. · 2024

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187(1), 39-61

Impact of COVID-19 on public social life and mental health: A statistical study of Google Trends data from the USA

Roy, A., Deb, S., Chakarwarti, D. · 2024

Journal of Applied Statistics, 51(3), 581-605

A wavelet-based methodology to compare the impact of pandemic versus Russia-Ukraine conflict on crude oil sector and its interconnectedness with other energy and non-energy markets

Roy, A., Soni, A., Deb, S. · 2023

Energy Economics, 124, 106830

A novel spatio-temporal clustering algorithm with applications on COVID-19 data from the United States

Deb, S., Karmakar, S. · 2023

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 188, 107810

A spatio-temporal statistical model to analyze COVID-19 spread in the USA

Rawat, S., Deb, S. · 2023

Journal of Applied Statistics, 50(11-12), 2310-2329

Analyzing airlines stock price volatility during COVID-19 pandemic through internet search data

Deb, S. · 2023

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2), 1497-1513

A quadratic trend-based time series method to analyze the early incidence pattern of COVID-19

Deb, S., Majumdar, M. · 2023

Biostatistics & Epidemiology, 7(1), e2076529

Prevalence and spectrum of diabetic peripheral neuropathy and its correlation with insulin resistance - An experience from eastern India

Majumdar, M., Banerjee, M., Sengupta, J., Deb, S., Jana, C. K., Roy, B. K. · 2023

International Journal of Advanced Research, 11(06), 1085-1094

An ensemble method for early prediction of dengue outbreak

Deb, S., Deb, S. · 2022

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 185(1), 84-101

Pre-prints and working papers

Projection Diagnostics for Directional Asymmetry and Tail-Ratio Departure in Multivariate Data

Banerjee, S., Deb, S. · 2026

arXiv

Pre-print

Optimising football transfer strategy under budget constraints: A weighted multi-criteria approach

Basu, T., Deb, S., Roy, R. · 2026

arXiv

Pre-print

Nonparametric regression of spatio-temporal data using infinite-dimensional covariates

Roy, S., Deb, S., Karmakar, S., Roy, R. · 2026

arXiv

Pre-print

Multiperiod volatility forecasting with optimization-based model selection: Evidence from NIFTY-50 Banks

Rai, K., Anand, A., Deb, S. · 2026

SSRN

Working paper

A nonparametric approach to understand multivariate quantile dynamics in financial time series

Rai, K., Roy, A., Dattner, I., Deb, S. · 2026

arXiv

Pre-print

Nonparametric method of structural break detection in stochastic time series regression model

Roy, A., Podder, M., Deb, S. · 2024

arXiv

Pre-print

Nonparametric quantile regression for spatio-temporal processes

Deb, S., Neves, C., Roy, S. · 2024

arXiv

Pre-print

CPRI-Office: A new commercial property rental index for Indian cities using spatio-temporal modeling techniques

Gupta, K., Srivastava, S., Deb, S., Panchapagesan, V. · 2025

IIMB Working Paper No. 727/2025

Working paper

A review and recommendations on variable selection methods in regression models for binary data

Bag, S., Gupta, K., Deb, S. · 2022

arXiv

Under resubmission

A Bayesian approach to identify changepoints in spatio-temporal ordered categorical data: An application to COVID-19 data

Rawat, S., Durrant, A., Simpson, A., Nielson, G., Berrett, C., Deb, S. · 2023

arXiv

Under resubmission

Accepted publications since 2020

Skill or chance? A Bayesian analysis of dependence and heterogeneity in penalty shootouts in football

Deb, S. · 2026

Journal of Sports Analytics, 12

Published

E-STGCN: Extreme spatiotemporal graph convolutional networks for air quality forecasting

Panja, M., Chakraborty, T., Biswas, A., Deb, S. · 2026

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, qnag010

Published

Optimal selection of the starting lineup for a football team

Deb, S., Das, S. · 2026

IIMB Management Review, 100642

Published

A divide-and-conquer approach for spatio-temporal analysis of large house price data from Greater London

Gupta, K., Deb, S. · 2025

Annals of Operations Research, 1-42

Published

A data-driven approach to spatial zoning and anomaly detection in the dynamic real estate network

Basu Sarbadhikary, S., Roy, A., Deb, S. · 2025

Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 23998083251411954

Published

tSNE-Spec: A new classification method for multivariate time series data

Sen, S., Deb, S. · 2025

Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 105537

Published

Environmentally Responsible Index Tracking: Maintaining Performance while Reducing Carbon Footprint of the Portfolio

Lakshmi M.V., Deb, S., Sen, R. · 2025

Statistics and Applications, 23(1), 217-223

Published

A survey of statistical and machine learning methods of quantile regression in time series and their suitability in predicting dengue outbreaks

Deshmukh, S. S., Deb, S. · 2025

Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science, 8(1), 641-689

Published

What elements of the opening set influence the outcome of a tennis match? An in-depth analysis of Wimbledon data

Gupta, K., Krishnamurthy, V., Deb, S. · 2025

IIMB Management Review, 37(1), 100519

Published

Nonparametric quantile regression for time series with replicated observations and its application to climate data

Deb, S., Jana, K. · 2024

Statistical Science, 39(3), 428-448

Published

Real-time forecasting within soccer matches through a Bayesian lens

Divekar, C., Deb, S., Roy, R. · 2024

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187(2), 513-540

Published

Forecasting elections from partial information using a Bayesian model for a multinomial sequence of data

Deb, S., Roy, R., Das, S. · 2024

Journal of Forecasting, 43(6), 1814-1834

Published

A spatio-temporal model for binary data and its application in analyzing the direction of COVID-19 spread

Chattopadhyay, A., Deb, S. · 2024

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 108(4), 823-851

Published

New methods of structural break detection and an ensemble approach to analyse exchange rate volatility of Indian rupee during coronavirus pandemic

Mareeswaran, M., Sen, S., Deb, S. · 2024

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187(1), 39-61

Published

Impact of COVID-19 on public social life and mental health: A statistical study of Google Trends data from the USA

Roy, A., Deb, S., Chakarwarti, D. · 2024

Journal of Applied Statistics, 51(3), 581-605

Published

A wavelet-based methodology to compare the impact of pandemic versus Russia-Ukraine conflict on crude oil sector and its interconnectedness with other energy and non-energy markets

Roy, A., Soni, A., Deb, S. · 2023

Energy Economics, 124, 106830

Published

A novel spatio-temporal clustering algorithm with applications on COVID-19 data from the United States

Deb, S., Karmakar, S. · 2023

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 188, 107810

Published

A spatio-temporal statistical model to analyze COVID-19 spread in the USA

Rawat, S., Deb, S. · 2023

Journal of Applied Statistics, 50(11-12), 2310-2329

Published

Analyzing airlines stock price volatility during COVID-19 pandemic through internet search data

Deb, S. · 2023

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2), 1497-1513

Published

A quadratic trend-based time series method to analyze the early incidence pattern of COVID-19

Deb, S., Majumdar, M. · 2023

Biostatistics & Epidemiology, 7(1), e2076529

Published

Prevalence and spectrum of diabetic peripheral neuropathy and its correlation with insulin resistance - An experience from eastern India

Majumdar, M., Banerjee, M., Sengupta, J., Deb, S., Jana, C. K., Roy, B. K. · 2023

International Journal of Advanced Research, 11(06), 1085-1094

Published

An ensemble method for early prediction of dengue outbreak

Deb, S., Deb, S. · 2022

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 185(1), 84-101

Published

A goal based index to analyze the competitive balance of a football league

Deb, S. · 2022

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 18(3), 171-186

Published

A machine learning approach to analyze the effect of situational and player-dependent features on converting freekicks in soccer

Nahata, S., Deb, S. · 2021

Conference Proceedings 2021 Asia-Singapore Conference on Sport Science, p. 19

Published